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Analysis by the Digital Resilience Association Based on Research by Forrester
Quantum Risk Is Moving from Theory to Practice
According to Forrester, in 2026 quantum-related risks are set to move beyond theory and become a tangible security concern for governments and major organizations.
The key concept is Store Now, Decrypt Later (SNDL) — threat actors may already be collecting encrypted data today with the intention of decrypting it in the future using quantum computing capabilities. This risk is particularly significant for long-lifecycle data such as government records, financial archives, and medical databases.
For countries with rapidly developing digital infrastructure, this is not a distant scenario — it is a matter of strategic preparedness.
Why Classical Cryptography Is No Longer Sufficient
Most digital systems rely on RSA and ECC algorithms that protect internet traffic, banking transactions, and public digital services. However, these standards are considered vulnerable in a future quantum computing environment.
Forrester estimates that by the end of 2026, more than 10% of Fortune 500 companies will have completed comprehensive inventories of their cryptographic assets.
At the center of this transition is crypto-agility — the organizational capability to replace cryptographic algorithms across systems without disrupting operations or requiring large-scale redevelopment. Institutions lacking this flexibility will face increased transition costs and operational risk.
A Balanced Transition: The Hybrid Model
Experts caution against an immediate full migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Instead, they recommend a hybrid approach that combines:
- established classical encryption (such as AES-256),
- with post-quantum algorithms standardized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (including Kyber and Dilithium).
This model reduces compatibility risks while strengthening long-term resilience.
Three Priorities for Quantum Readiness
Organizations preparing for quantum risk should focus on three strategic steps:
1. Inventory
Map cryptographic dependencies across IT and operational environments.
2. Prioritization
Identify information with long-term exposure risk — including public registries, healthcare data, financial systems, and critical infrastructure.
3. Testing and Integration
Evaluate how post-quantum standards will integrate with existing hardware, software, and regulatory requirements.
Implications for Kyrgyzstan
For Kyrgyzstan, quantum security directly affects:
- the resilience of digital public services,
- the integrity of interbank transactions,
- alignment with evolving international standards,
- preservation of digital sovereignty.
As the country deepens integration into regional and global digital ecosystems, early action will significantly reduce long-term risk and financial burden.
Position of the Digital Resilience Association
The Digital Resilience Association considers cryptographic agility a strategic component of sustainable digital development.
We recommend that public institutions and private organizations begin preparing now by:
- conducting structured cryptographic audits,
- assessing long-term data exposure risks,
- embedding crypto-agility principles into system architecture,
- incorporating post-quantum standards into modernization roadmaps.
Quantum security is a long-term strategic priority.
Organizations that act early will ensure that today’s data remains secure in tomorrow’s computing landscape.