Cyber Resilience 2026: Key Risks and Strategic Outlook for Central Asia

Based on the World Economic Forum’s “Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026” report.

The digital landscape is evolving faster than ever. Artificial Intelligence, geopolitical instability, and increasingly complex supply chains are redefining the cybersecurity context. The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026 provides a systemic view of these shifts, identifying the solutions that have become critical today.

For businesses and the public sector in Central Asia, this overview is particularly relevant: the region is simultaneously facing a surge in digital threats and a shortage of the specialized talent needed to build resilient defenses.

Artificial Intelligence: Opportunities and Risks

AI has become the primary driver of transformation in cybersecurity. 94% of global survey participants consider AI a key factor changing the industry.

While AI strengthens defense by accelerating incident analysis and improving threat detection, it is also being weaponized by attackers to scale phishing and social engineering operations.

• The Shift: In 2025, the primary concern was the growing capability of hackers; in 2026, the focus has shifted to data leak risks via Generative AI, a concern shared by 34% of respondents.
• Maturity: On a positive note, organizational maturity is rising. The share of organizations that assess the security of AI tools before implementation rose from 37% to 64% in one year. However, 36% of companies still deploy AI without a formalized risk assessment.

Geopolitics and Digital Sovereignty

Cybersecurity is increasingly viewed as a pillar of national and corporate resilience. According to the report, 31% of respondents express low confidence in their country’s ability to respond effectively to major attacks on critical infrastructure (up from 26% a year ago). Consequently, states and corporations are re-evaluating technological dependencies, supply chains, and the origins of key digital solutions. The concept of digital sovereignty is moving from theory into practice within corporate strategies and government policies.

Cyber Inequity as a Systemic Risk

The report highlights a widening “resilience gap” between organizations. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are twice as likely to report insufficient resilience compared to large corporations. The public sector remains particularly vulnerable: 23% of government organizations rate their cyber resilience as insufficient, compared to 11% in the private sector. In an interconnected ecosystem, this creates risks for everyone, as attackers frequently target the least protected links in the chain.

Key Challenges for Europe and Central Asia

For our region, the report highlights three critical issues:

1. Rise in Digital Fraud: 71% of respondents reported that they or their associates encountered cyber fraud in the past year.
2. The Talent Gap: 43% of organizations in the region suffer from a shortage of qualified cybersecurity professionals.
3. Limited Trust in National Defense: Only 40% of respondents are confident in the state’s ability to protect critical infrastructure; nearly a quarter remain skeptical.

Looking Toward 2030: Emerging Risks

WEF experts identify several areas requiring immediate attention:

• Cyber-Physical Systems: Where digital incidents lead to real-world physical consequences.
• Digital Currencies: Vulnerabilities that could trigger large-scale financial disruptions.
• Space Infrastructure & Undersea Cables: Currently prioritized by only 15–18% of organizations, despite their foundational role in global connectivity.
• Quantum Computing: A technology that could jeopardize current cryptographic standards within the next decade.

Strategic Recommendations for Regional Organizations

The report emphasizes that digital resilience is a collective responsibility. Key practices include:

• An Ecosystem Approach: 74% of the most resilient organizations regularly audit the security levels of their suppliers and partners.
• Investment in Human Capital: Given the regional talent shortage, developing internal competencies is a strategic priority.
• Responsible AI Integration: 71% of high-resilience companies have implemented formal validation procedures for AI tools.
• Collaboration: Sharing threat intelligence remains one of the most effective ways to bolster collective defense.

Conclusion

In 2026, cyber resilience is no longer a set of isolated technical measures; it is a core component of overall development strategy. Organizations that invest in people, processes, and ecosystem collaboration today will not only achieve higher protection but also gain the flexibility to navigate future uncertainties.